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طی دو هفته اخیر ۲۳۰هزار میلیارد تومان نقدینگی با اوراق گواهی سپرده جمع‌آوری شد.

به گزارش استادنیوز ، نرخ دلار مجدداً خود را به کانال ۴ هزار و ۹۰۰ تومان و محدوده ۵ هزار تومان نزدیک کرده است و ناتوانی دولت و بانک مرکزی در کنترل این نرخ ارز در شرایطی است که گفته می‌شود، بانک مرکزی در دو هفته اخیر حدود ۲۳۰هزار میلیارد تومان اوراق گواهی سپرده (معادل ۴/۱۵درصد از کل نقدینگی) به فروش رسانده است. در چنین شرایطی که این حجم عظیم از نقدینگی جمع‌آوری شده است، باید دید چرا دولت در کنترل نرخ ارز ناتوان است.

تا چندی پیش دولت و بانک مرکزی مدعی بود که بازار ارز غیرمنطقی و به دلیل سیاسی با رشد قیمت‌ها مواجه شده است. این اظهارنظر یعنی پمپاژ پول‌های قابل‌ملاحظه به بازار ارز تقاضایی را در بازار رقم زده که بهای ارز با رشد مواجه شده است. در پی رشد بهای ارز، چندی پیش دولت و بانک مرکزی بسته سیاستی را عملیاتی کرده‌اند تا نقدینگی موجود در بازار را جمع‌آوری کنند. اگرچه ولی‌الله سیف، چندی پیش میزان فروش اوراق در پنج روز اول اجرای طرح را ۱۰۱هزار میلیارد تومان اعلام کرد، اما براساس آخرین اطلاعاتی که خبرگزاری «فارس» از بانک مرکزیبه‌دست آورده است، میزان کل فروش اوراق گواهی سپرده در مدت دو هفته ۲۳۰هزار میلیارد تومان بوده که در واقع به طور متوسط در ۱۲روز کاری روزانه ۱۹هزار و ۱۶۶میلیارد تومان اوراق خریداری شده است.

سیل نقدینگی خریداران از کجا آمد؟

بانک مرکزی مجوز فروش اوراق گواهی سپرده از سوی همه بانک‌های کشور را برای دو هفته صادر کرد که ۲۳۰ میلیارد تومان اوراق گواهی سپرده (معادل ۴/۱۵درصد از کل نقدینگی) به فروش رسیده است. با فرض اینکه حجم کل نقدینگی در بهمن‌ماه هم ۶۷/۱درصد رشد داشته باشد، در پایان بهمن‌ماه نقدینگی حدود یک‌تریلیون‌و۴۹۰هزار ‌میلیارد تومان است.

با این حساب در چارچوب فروش اوراق گواهی سپرده معادل ۴/۱۵درصد از کل نقدینگی صرف خرید این اوراق شد. با توجه به وضعیت نرخ‌ سود سپرده‌های کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت به نظر می‌رسد، بخش عمده منابع اختصاص‌یافته به خرید اوراق سپرده‌های کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت را شامل می‌شده که نرخ سود آن کمتر از ۲۰درصد بوده و برای دارندگان این منابع نرخ سود ۲۰درصد جذابیت داشته است. از طرف دیگر با توجه به نقش صندوق‌های سرمایه‌گذاری درآمد ثابت در خرید اوراق و همچنین دارایی آنها که بیش از ۱۴۰هزار میلیارد تومان است به نظر می‌رسد، بخش قابل‌توجهی از منابع این صندوق‌ها صرف خرید این اوراق شده است.

تقاضا ارز را بالا می‌برد یا اراده‌ای نامرئی

در این میان این نکته حائز اهمیت است که به‌رغم جمع‌آوری بیش از ۲۰۰هزار میلیارد تومان از نقدینگی کشور توسط گواهی سپرده، باز هم شاهد رشد نرخ ارز در بازار داخلی هستیم. هرچند برخی از کارشناسان تهدیدهای ترامپ به خروج از برجام را در تبدیل ریال به سایر ارزها مؤثر عنوان می‌کنند اما کسری بودجه دولت، حجم بالای بدهی‌های دولت، نیاز دولت در روزهای واپسین سال جهت پرداخت حقوق، دستمزد، عیدی کارکنان و بخشی از بدهی‌های خود به پیمانکاران از جمله مواردی است که در رابطه با رشد بهای ارز در داخل می‌تواند دخیل باشد. در این بین، رفتار پتروشیمی‌ها، فولادی‌ها و برخی از صادرکنندگان خرد به عنوان دارندگان ارز در عرضه ارزشان به بازار همچنان یکی از نکات مبهم اقتصاد ایران در رشد بهای ارز است.

همچنین رفتار دولت و بانک مرکزی در رابطه با بازار ارز چندان شفاف نیست و وجود دلالان وصرافی‌های غیرمجاز در بازار ارز از نکات مبهم دیگر است.

محصولات کارخانه‌ای ایران ضعیف و وابسته به ارز است

در این میان، روز گذشته در شرایطی که همه حواس‌ها به جلسه استیضاح وزرای کار و راه‌وشهرسازی بود، بهای ارز در بازار دوباره بالا کشید و این افزایش بهای ارز برای اقتصاد ایران و به ویژه طبقات ضعیف جامعه اثر سوء خواهد داشت، زیرا تولیدات کارخانه‌ای ایران حتی از امارات نیز کمتر است و عموم محصولات اولیه تولیدات کارخانه‌ای ایران نیز از طریق واردات تأمین می‌شود. بدین ترتیب رشد بهای ارز می‌تواند به رشد نرخ محصولات نهایی کارخانه‌ای بینجامد و واردات محصولات موادغذایی را نیز افزایش دهد که به ضرر اقشار پایین درآمدی ایران می‌باشد.

پوشش ناکارآمدی‌ها با رشد نرخ کالا و خدمات

در حالی که در اقتصاد جهانی رقابت بر سر افزایش کیفیت و کاهش قیمت در جریان است، رشد نرخ‌ها در اقتصاد ایران برای پوشش هزینه‌های دولت (کارفرمای بزرگ) و بنگاه‌های مختلف (کارفرماهای متوسط و کوچک‌تر) در جریان است و گاه رشد قیمت‌ها که کفاف پوشش هزینه‌ها و ضعف کارآمدی را نمی‌دهد، بنگاه‌ها از کیفیت خدمات و کالای تولیدی کاسته و در این میان مسیرهایی چون اخذ تسهیلات از شبکه بانکی و ایجاد معوقات کلان بانکی، مالیاتی، بیمه‌ای را جهت پوشش ضعف‌ها دنبال می‌کنند و حال آنکه این مسیر برای اقتصاد ایران خوب نیست. زیرا با رشد نرخ‌ها، درآمدهای نیروی کار رشد نمی‌یابد و همین امر باعث رشد فقر و ضعف مالی و طرف تقاضا در اقتصاد ایران شده است.

«ایسنا» روزگذشته درباره آخرین تحولات بازار ارز نوشت: قیمت دلار در میان دلالان به ۴ هزار و ۹۰۰ تومان رسیده و صرافی‌ها نرخ رسمی دلار و یورو را از تابلوهایشان حذف کرده‌اند و از سوی دیگر در ادامه روند روزگذشته فروش این دو ارز همچنان متوقف است حتی برای مسافران.
برخلاف روزها و هفته‌های گذشته، دیگر خبری از صف‌های طولانی مقابل صرافی‌ها در بازار نیست و حتی مسافران هم صفی تشکیل نداده‌اند. علت اصلی هم این است که در ادامه روند روزهای اخیر اکثر صرافی‌ها دلار و یورو نمی‌فروشند.

در چند روز قبل اعلام شد که خرید دلار و یوروی دولتی با داشتن مدارک مسافری از جمله ویزا و بلیت امکان‌پذیر است، اما در حال حاضر این امکان برای مسافران هم وجود ندارد و صرافی‌ها این دو ارز مهم را عرضه نمی‌کنند. برخی از صرافی‌ها می‌گویند که بانک مرکزی در عرضه روزانه خود به آنها دلار ارائه نمی‌کند، اما بانک مرکزی روزگذشته این ادعا را رد و اظهار کرده است که روند عرضه دلار به صرافی‌ها متوقف نشده است.

اگر این صحبت درست باشد، دقیقاً مشخص نیست چرا صرافی‌ها فروش دلار و یورو را متوقف کرده‌اند. در حال حاضر متقاضیان دلار و یورو مجبور هستند برای خرید به سراغ دلالان و دستفروشان ارز بروند. در بازار آزاد و در میان دلالان، دلار با قیمت ۴ هزار و ۹۰۰ تومان فروخته می‌شد و یورو در آستانه ۶ هزار تومان قیمت داشت. تغییر دیگری هم که در روند دیروز بازار رخ داده این است که قیمت‌ها روی تابلو اعلان قیمت‌های صرافی‌ها به قیمت واقعی نزدیک‌تر شده و دیگر خبری از نرخ ۴ هزار و ۴۰۰ تومانی روی تابلوها نیست.

منبع: روزنامه جوان

بازدید کننده گرامی : شما هم اکنون این خبر را در شبکه خبری تحلیلی استادنیوز مشاهده میکنید

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